In his latest messages, al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden talked up the Israel-Palestine issue and barely mentioned Iraq. This has security analysts buzzing.
In the first statement, posted on the internet on 16 May, he said: "My talk to you addresses the main root of conflict... namely, the Palestinian question. This conflict is escalating due to your [the West's] current policies. I would like to stress here that the Palestinian question is my nation's top issue."
In the second, on 18 May, he attacked Arab leaders for not doing more to help: "Every day, the herd wishes the wolves would stop preying on it. Those kings and leaders sacrificed Palestine and Al-Aqsa [the mosque in Jerusalem] to keep their crowns. ... But we will not be relieved of this responsibility."
The reference to the Palestinians has always been present in the al-Qaeda leader's statements over the years, but it has often been sidelined by other tactical and strategic interests, from Saudi Arabia to Afghanistan to the Danish cartoons. Iraq has been one of the most prominent issues for him.
Waking from slumber
The two new statements contrast with the importance given to Iraq in another message in March: "Iraq is the perfect base to set up the jihad to liberate Palestine. Palestine will be restored to us, with God's permission, when we wake up from our slumber."
The word "slumber" (and his criticism of Arab rulers) gives a clue to Bin Laden's thinking. He wants more to be done.
Hence perhaps the shift from Iraq, which has come to mean difficulties, to the "Palestinian question", which can attract support.
This has led to a theory among some western intelligence analysts that al-Qaeda accepts that it is in trouble in Iraq.
The article also discusses the issues of:
- Al Qaeda's role in Islamist terrorism,
- whether the rise of leaderless jihad has supplanted al Qaeda,
- How it's more difficult for al Qaeda to carry out co-ordinated, transnational attacks, and
- How civilian casualties may be hurting al Qaeda amongst Muslims