One analyst thinks that if we have wacky weather, then prices for "soft commodities" -- stuff we eat, like rice, wheat and corn -- have no where to go but up, up, up.

And with a changing climate, weather becomes less predictable.

From the Globe and Mail. The writer is Dale Jackson, a Business News Network producer:

The supply crunch is prompting exporting nations like China, Vietnam, India and Egypt to hold back supply - forcing consuming nations like the Philippines to ration whatever is available on the open market.

"That situation could, in the short term get even worse. I don't see any immediate solution for that over the next several weeks or months," says Vic Lespinasse, a soft commodities trader at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The analyst at Grainanalyst.com says farmers around the globe have responded with aggressive planting programs and prices could moderate in the longer-term.

However, he's careful to point out that in the agriculture sector everything depends on the weather.

"If we have normal weather I think we will see much bigger crops this year and 12 months from now prices will be lower than they are currently," he said. "If the weather is not favourable -which is always a possibility - you ain't seen nothing yet."

Weather is a bigger price factor than other supply-draining fundamentals such as global population growth, demand from China, the weak U.S. dollar and growing demand for biofuel, he added. Global warming has made weather patterns harder to predict. A recent report by Macquarie Research Equities points specifically to the La Nina weather system for global weather shifts.

According to the report, excess rain in Southeast Asia will reduce palm oil output, more rain in Australia will increase wheat output, and a strong hurricane season in the Americas could damage sugar, cotton and other crops.

Another disrupting factor cited in the report is frequent crop-switching by farmers attempting to adjust to market demand and shifting government policies.

Although Mr. Lespinasse says he doesn't expect prices to ever return to pre-rally levels he is advising his clients that soft commodities - those that are grown, rather than mined - could be nearing peak territory.

Chuck Bastyr, chief investment officer with Meadowbank Asset Management, has been a buyer of soft commodities for over a year and says he will continue to be a buyer for the foreseeable future. Urbanization and the loss of arable farmland will always keep some soft commodities in demand, he said.