The Conservatives had a good night in Ontario on Tuesday if you look at seat count, but in terms of popular vote share, they haven't moved much in almost a decade.

From my ctvtoronto.ca feature:

Since the 2004 campaign, the Tories have gained 28 seats in Ontario.

However, the popular vote tells an interesting story.

In 2000, the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative vote in Ontario totalled 38 per cent. On Tuesday, the Tories took 39.2 per cent of the vote.

The Liberals won 51.5 per cent of the ballots cast in Ontario in 2000 -- and 100 seats. The party's popular vote share on Tuesday was 33.8 per cent and 38 seats.

Docherty said that can almost entirely be traced to the rise of the Greens and NDP in Ontario over that period. The Greens captured less than one per cent of ballots in 2000; the environmental party earned eight per cent support on Tuesday.

In 2000, the NDP were in the doldrums with 8.3 per cent. On Tuesday, the Jack Layton-led social democratic party captured 18.2 per cent of Ontarians' votes and 17 seats.

In many of Tuesday's close losses by Liberals, "it's not that people were leaving to the Conservatives. It's that people were either unhappy with (Liberal Leader) Stephane Dion or they were voting with the Greens or perhaps the NDP," Docherty said.