Pakistan's security forces have stormed the Red Mosque in Islamabad, leaving its chief cleric dead. Does this mean President Pervez Musharraf is going to change policies with respects to domestic militants, Afghanistan and Kashmir, or is he going to keep playing footsie with his homegrowns and their security force sympathizers?
Internationally, (Musharraf) has been able to salvage his falling reputation as a bulwark against extremists. This will get him some crucial military and diplomatic support from the west.
On the domestic front, his move against the militants appears to have the support of Pakistan's largest political party, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), which recently frustrated efforts by the opposition groups to form a united front against him. ...
But check this out:
For two decades, the Pakistani security establishment has been heavily involved in raising and sustaining a militant infrastructure of Islamic fundamentalist groups.
This infrastructure was used as a policy tool to safeguard the country's security interests in Afghanistan and India, supporting the Taleban in Afghanistan and militant groups in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The policy has spawned a whole generation of Pakistani youth deeply sympathetic to Islamic causes around the world.
It has also created tensions in Pakistan's foreign and domestic policies. President Musharraf lays great emphasis on the need for a modern, liberal society on the one hand, while preserving the country's policies towards India and Afghanistan - supported by many Islamic hardliners - on the other.
Many analysts believe that a real shift in favour of liberal forces cannot take place without a critical evaluation of the country's policy towards Afghanistan.
Such a shift presupposes some fundamental social and political initiatives on the part of the government to pave the way for fair elections, full democracy and accountability.
That would also assume a stepping back by the military from its dominant role in Pakistan's political life.
One indication of whether Gen Musharraf intends to head in this direction would be if he orders an open inquiry into how and why the Red Mosque tragedy came about.