John Simpson, the BBC's world affairs editor, offers some observations and thoughts on whether the West can help secure Afghanistan against the Taliban. He's not optimistic. And if NATO forces ever leave ...
For several years after the Taleban were chased out of power, they seemed to be finished. Girls went back to the schools which the Taleban had closed down, women's groups started up and women appeared on television as newsreaders.
Now a new campaign of murder against prominent women has begun.
With Nato troops mostly tied up in the southern part of the country, the Afghan police and army are finding it harder to operate elsewhere. New recruits, new weapons and new tactics are coming in to help the Taleban from outside.
Civilians in Afghanistan increasingly distrust Nato troops
Especially from Iraq. Al-Qaeda, the Taleban's close ally, is redirecting some of its forces here.
The new al-Qaeda commander in Afghanistan, Mustafa bin Yazid, has himself had combat experience in Iraq, and is thought to be behind the new tactic of suicide-bombing; something that was relatively rare in Afghanistan until recently.
But the Taleban are not winning all the battles. I spoke to a senior Taleban figure who has just defected to the government in Kabul after falling out with the overall Taleban leader, Mullah Omar.
He maintained that many Taleban leaders like himself are hostile to al-Qaeda, and are looking for some third way between the government with its Nato allies and the foreign extremists led by bin Yazid.
But he agreed the Taleban were proving increasingly successful against the government, and confirmed that their strategy was to surround Kabul and eventually capture it.
While Nato forces are in the country, that will not happen. But so far neither Nato nor the government of President Karzai seems to know how to counter the resurgent Taleban.
In 2004, the book Imperial Hubris was published. The anonymous author would eventually be revealed as Michael Scheuer, former head of the CIA's Bin Laden unit. He wrote a chapter on Afghanistan.
His conclusion was that Afghanistan would almost certainly fall once again to an Islamist regime: "One hopes that Karzai and the rest of the Westernized, secular and followerless Afghan expatriates installed in Kabul are able to get out with their lives."
One of his findings is that Afghans can't be bought. If that's the case, it raises the question about all the nation-building Canada is trying to do there.
A poll that stunned me was conducted by the BBC and ABC News and released last December. It found that in southern Afghanistan, four in six people say people in their area provide the Taliban with food and money.
At a Dec. 7 session put on by the Canadian Journalism Foundation, I said this in reference to that finding: "We are trying to help those who are helping our enemy. Interpret that as you will."
Lt.-Gen. Andrew Leslie, chief of land forces for the Canadian armed forces, was on the panel. He didn't offer any comment in response.
And then we have 'winning hearts and minds' developments like this. :(