Prominent Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid offers some thoughts on what the bomb attack on Benazir Bhutto and her followers means to democratic development and stability in Pakistan. The short answer? Nothing good. Nothing at all.
For the United States and Britain, who have been in the forefront of trying to stitch together a rapprochement between Gen. Musharraf and Ms. Bhutto and pushing for free and fair elections, the bombing comes as a severe blow. Unlike Gen. Musharraf and the army, who have hesitated on the need to crack down hard on extremism, Ms. Bhutto has been clear about the issue from the start.
Her party faithful have backed her on the need to politically isolate the Islamic fundamentalist parties, deal harshly with Islamic extremism, make up with President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan and settle another insurgency that is taking place in Baluchistan by tribes seeking separation from Pakistan.
Gen. Musharraf has refused to attempt a national reconciliation between the army, the PML, opposition parties and the various insurgencies taking place in the country. Instead, he has successfully divided the opposition and played hot and cold with the extremists. And he still wants to keep Islamic fundamentalist parties on board with him in any future electoral alliance.
It was hoped that Ms. Bhutto's safe arrival, her show of strength and her subsequent dialogue with the military would increase pressure on Gen. Musharraf to consolidate a strategy against the extremists. That looks increasingly unlikely, as Ms. Bhutto is forced to cordon herself off under tight security, reduce contact with her supporters and refrain from touring the country as she had planned.
Pakistan is just short of becoming a failed state, battling a far more dangerous, lethal and ideologically motivated Islamic extremism than that which U.S. and NATO forces are fighting in Afghanistan. Unless the army shows a greater willingness to establish political stability through fair elections, Pakistan is heading downhill.