Rising incomes in Asia will mean changing transportation patterns. And that means greenhouse gas emissions there could treble over the next 25 years.

Actually, a report commissioned for the Asian Business Development Bank thinks that could even be an underestimate.

An excerpt:

The report provides detailed analysis of the link between transport and climate change in Asia.

It says that its estimate of future levels of greenhouse gas could even be an optimistic assessment.

Air pollution and congestion will seriously hamper the ability to move people and goods effectively, it warns.

'Partnerships required'

The report, Energy Efficiency and Climate Change: Considerations for On-Road Transport in Asia, says that Asia currently has low levels of personal motorized transport, which in many cases are motorcycles.

But it says that these levels are likely to increase significantly as incomes in these countries grows and the urban population becomes bigger.

The report points out that China is already the world's fourth largest economy, and the number of cars and utility vehicles could increase by 15 times more than present levels to more than 190 million vehicles over the next 30 years.

People in Asia are moving from four wheels to two

In India, traffic growth is likely to increase by similar levels over the same time period, the report says.

Carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles could rise 3.4 times for China and 5.8 times for India.

"Progress toward reducing the growth of greenhouse gases from the transport sector will require partnerships and involvement of a wide range of stakeholders," Bindu Lohani, director-general of the ADB's sustainable development department, wrote in the foreword to the report.

He said that addressing these problems would mean "changing existing travel behaviour patterns and modifying urban development patterns to minimize the type, length, and frequency of trips that people need to take".