Richard Gwyn, writing in the Toronto Star, says France could very well vote 'no' in the European Union constitution ratification referendum in a few weeks.

This a bad omen because it was the French who came up with the idea of the EU in the first place. But that was in a different time ...

An excerpt:

France these days is gripped by a deep sense of malaise, both about Europe and about itself. France isn't working, almost literally so. Its unemployment rate of 10 per cent is one of the highest among industrial nations (double Britain's). A quarter-century ago its economy was larger than Britain's; today, it's 10 per cent smaller.

Neither, though, do many French citizens feel that Europe is any longer working for them. Their own economy and society have traditionally been tightly managed and directed. But under the influence of the new member-states from the old Eastern Europe, the EU is becoming increasingly market-oriented, which is to say, as the French themselves, say, it's becoming "Anglo-Saxon."

As well, the French are increasingly concerned by the demographic, and therefore cultural, changes taking place in Europe and in their own country.

All of their population growth is by newcomers, mostly Muslims. Resistance to Turkey's possible admission is rising. Referendums will allow people a "free vote" against their government for all kinds of different, and contradictory, reasons. This is why rejection is a real possibility.