In its editorial Election threatens a year of progress, the Toronto Star again argues for the Martin Liberals to be allowed to pass the federal budget and for Gomery to report before there's an election.

One question: Why is the Star so sure the Liberals will lose?

Anyways, an excerpt:

If Harper forces an election now, Finance Minister Ralph Goodale's budget will die on the floor of the House of Commons before any of its provisions are enacted. In practical terms, that would mean that a number of the good things the Liberals did in the past year would all be for naught. A year's progress would be completely wasted. For example:

Cities, including Toronto, would not get the promised $600 million in gas-tax money this year, money they desperately need.

The extensive environmental provisions of the budget to fight pollution and global warming would disappear into the ozone layer, meaning no progress would be made on this front for at least another year.

The $823 million in new money this year for seniors, aboriginal communities, tax fairness and other measures to strengthen social policy in Canada would stay in Ottawa and help no one.

The same is true for the $800 million in the budget that was earmarked for security, national defence and international assistance.

The $3.3 billion slated in the budget for additional year-end initiatives in a broad number of areas will instead be applied to the national debt.

Is it really worth it to Canadians to lose all the progress reflected in the budget — a budget that Harper and his Tory party strongly supported — to have an election in June rather than early in the new year?

The Star then goes on to write:

If voters are determined to punish Martin for what took place on his predecessor Jean Chrétien's watch, they will have as much opportunity to do so in February as they would have in June. By waiting, however, they will at least realize the full benefits of the many good measures that Martin and the Liberals have included in the budget — measures Harper himself backed exactly two months ago today.

So what happens if Harper does form a government but his budget is largely the same as the Liberal one it replaced?

Does the sky fall in? If the Conservatives are smart (and they strike me as having some smart people in their caucus), they'll take a page from the Liberals' book and adopt those policies which are politically popular.

The budget may yet pass -- or it may be the hill the Liberals choose to die on ("The Tories and Bloc killed gas tax sharing! Those bastards!" :) ).

To my mind, if the opposition parties genuinely don't have confidence in the government, then in our Parliamentary system, aren't they duty-bound to vote against the government after a non-confidence motion is tabled?

If they're being crassly opportunistic, then people can punish those parties at the poll. The two main ones itching for an election are the Tories and the Bloc Quebecois. In the public utterances I can find from Conservative campaign chairman John Reynolds, he has not met one Canadian who doesn't think it's time for an election.

If people buy into a "throw-the-bums-out" mob mentality which then leads to a worse government, well, whose fault is that? Democracy is a process. It doesn't guarantee a good outcome.

It's a long shot, but maybe people will accept Martin's argument that the sponsorship scandal was not his doing, and that's he has done what he can to clean up the mess, and that his overall program will do good things for Canadians.

Polls by Ipsos-Reid have shown only about one-quarter of voters will be voting on a single issue, and that they overwhelmingly want any election delayed until the Gomery inquiry reports.

Harper has a 36-day campaign to fill up. Chanting "corruption! corruption! corruption!" all day, every day might get tiresome. Similarly, just telling people "we're not the Liberals" might not do it either.

Another problem Harper faces is that in one Ipsos-Reid poll, 55 per cent of people said they wouldn't vote Liberal under any circumstances, but 50 per cent also say that about the Conservatives, and they've been out of power since 1993! :)

To me, a Tory victory is not a complete slam dunk.

The Star has the right, if not the duty, to warn of the policy consequences of ending this parliamentary session and sending Canadians to the polls just out of spite, blind anger -- or in the opposition's case, opportunism.

But it also has a responsibility to give a realistic assessment of the risks. In this case, I don't think it did.