In a new poll released late Monday, the federal Liberals have about 27 per cent support compared to 30 for the Tories.
The Globe and Mail and CTV.ca stories are now online.
And it just gets worse from there (some preliminary details from an earlier CTV.ca story).
The Quebec breakout -- which has a higher margin of error than the 3.1 per cent for the total poll -- puts the Bloc Quebecois in a 48-18 lead over the Grits.
If the federal Liberals were hoping to improve on their 21 seats from the June 28 federal election, they're heading in the wrong direction. Back then, they captured 34 per cent of the vote.
In Ontario, the Liberals are in a statistical tie with the Tories. Back in the last election, they captured almost 45 per cent of the vote, compared to 31.5 per cent for the Tories. That translated into 75 seats for the Grits and 24 for the Tories (the NDP picked up seven).
But keep in mind, a 20-seat shift down by the Liberals and a 20-seat rise by the Tories results in a change in (minority) governments.
Robert Fife, CTV's bureau chief, said Monday night that the Liberals he's talking to are "freaking out."
There's talk they might be left with 60 seats after the next election -- whenever that might be (they won 135 on June 28).
But Fife, who's been on the Hill a while, thinks it's a matter of weeks.
Here's some excerpts from The Globe story:
Sixty-five per cent of those surveyed said it is time for a change in federal government and 55 per cent said they think Mr. Martin's government could have done more to clean up corruption — about the same percentage that said they would not vote Liberal in the next election.
On the other hand, 50 per cent of respondents said they would not consider voting Conservative and a slim majority said they believe the wrongdoings were committed by "a small rogue band of corrupt individuals" within the Liberal Party and not the party in general.
Only one in four said the scandal will be the decisive issue for them when they cast their ballot.
Asked whether they still trusted Mr. Martin more than Mr. Harper despite the Gomery revelations, 48 per cent said yes and 46 per cent said no.
Couple that with the fact that nearly nine in 10 Canadians surveyed said they do not want an election before the completion of the Gomery inquiry and the extent of Mr. Harper's dilemma is clear.
Opinion, analysis
Meanwhile, if you missed Chantal Hebert's Toronto Star column from Monday, here it is. An excerpt:
Nothing in Paul Martin's past as a ship owner can have prepared him for this: the sinking feeling that his government is going down under him.
Since the explosive testimony of Groupaction president Jean Brault came to light last Thursday, the Liberals have crashed through the public opinion floor across Canada.
In Ontario alone, they have endured a double-digit drop in support from the Toronto Star's last EKOS poll in early February to this weekend's.
In Quebec, even the Liberal core vote is melting. They have fallen to third place, three points behind the Conservatives and 35 points behind the Bloc Québécois.
To make matters worse for Martin, the numbers may provide Jack Layton, so far the most reluctant opposition leader to pull the plug on the government, with an incentive to do so. The NDP has moved into the lead in the Prairies and British Columbia and is on the way up in Ontario.
If this trend holds, Martin's minority government will be dead and possibly buried by Canada Day.
Here's an excerpt from Brian Laghi's analysis piece in Monday's Globe:
The idea has always been to wait the Gomery inquiry out, and call an election next spring in the hope that the public will become deadened to the issue.
But the recent damning testimony of ad executive Jean Brault, along with evidence of softening polls, suggests the Liberals must move away from their careful game plan because Stephen Harper is not about to play ball. A new and more risky strategy is being contemplated because waiting it out is no longer a luxury the Liberals can afford.
Whatever damage had been done to the party took place on voting day, and a few more acidy drips from the inquiry would not cause enough damage to prompt the opposition Tories to pull the electoral plug. If the Liberals could make it to next spring, the public would forget the worst excesses.
This thinking still seemed to form the Liberal strategy last week. While in Rome, Mr. Martin uttered a few paragraphs about the Pope but said nothing about sponsorship. Aides said it was in respect to the late pontiff, whose funeral the Prime Minister was attending. In fairness, someone could also argue that anything the PM said was not likely to douse the flames.
But the Prime Minister's Office wanted to see just how destructive the Brault testimony would be before changing course. Four days on, it appears the damage is almost beyond calculation, and the Liberals are now expected to get more aggressive -- even if that carries a substantial risk.
Earlier blog postings: