I wonder whether Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty's demand for more money from Ottawa will eventually hurt the federal Liberals -- or provide an opportunity for the Conservatives.

Writing in Sunday's Toronto Star, Anthony Keller made an interesting point:

The party that should be interested in this agenda — if they can stop obsessing over gay marriage — is the federal Conservatives. This is their kind of issue. The solution is not to transfer more federal tax revenue back to the Ontario government, as Dalton McGuinty wants. It's for the feds to take less money out of Ontarians' hands in the first place.

The Conservatives are often said to be hamstrung by their legacy as a regional grievance party, but perhaps all they need is a bigger region, and a more saleable grievance. After all, the cash register provinces of B.C., Alberta and Ontario have 62 per cent of the Canadian population, and their standards of living are depressed by the federal government's decision to make its main business that of inter-provincial wealth redistribution. The cash registers also have a majority of the seats in the House.

On Feb. 22, Richard Gwyn also wrote on the funding dispute, opining that Prime Minister Paul Martin was going to weaken the nation's political fabric with all his side deals.

Here was his prediction:

In the past, Ontario leaders have been reluctant to use their power. That Canada needed saving was a factor. So, at least as much, was Ontario's old-time fiscal affluence and complacency.

McGuinty now says he intends to be "muscular" in his dealings with Ottawa. McGuinty, himself, is hardly muscular. Ontario is, though.

Unlike other players in the Confederation game —Quebec as the prime example of the collective focusing on a goal, and also Alberta and Newfoundland, as well as most other provinces — Ontario, divided between Toronto and the rest and reluctant to see itself as a victim, may have power, but mostly it's only soft power.

So what will happen? Everyone else will make side deals. Ontario will become angrier and more alienated. And Confederation will unravel further. It's not going to be pretty. But it is what's going to happen.