The Toronto Star has two major polling stories today: One on same-sex marriage and one on missile defence.

Neither are particularly good news for the governing Liberals.

First, same-sex marriage:

With MPs about to vote on same-sex marriage, Canadians are almost equally divided over the issue, according to a Toronto Star poll released today.

The poll, conducted by EKOS Research Associates, shows 42 per cent of Canadians endorse allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry. In contrast, 40 per cent say they oppose marriage for same-sex couples.

In Alberta, 50 per cent oppose same-sex marriage, but even in Ontario, 48 per cent oppose it. In contrast, 52 per cent of Quebecers support gay marriage.

Nationally, 17 per cent of respondents said they "neither" support nor oppose same-sex marriage, and 1 per cent said they did not know or declined to respond.

The results come just days before a crucial second-reading — or agreement in principle — debate over Bill C-38, the Civil Marriage Act, begins in Parliament. The debate is to start Wednesday, with a vote possibly coming within a week or two after that.

That vote sets the stage for a Commons committee to study the bill, but if approved in principle, it's unlikely it would undergo significant changes. A final vote is expected before June.

And now, missile defence:

The federal Liberals have probably lost their chance to join the U.S.-led missile defence program without the risk of paying a big political price, according to a Toronto Star poll.

A growing majority of Canadians oppose Canada's participation in the controversial program and, in a troubling sign for Prime Minister Paul Martin and his minority government, the question could emerge as a major election issue, according to the poll conducted by EKOS Research Associates.

"For Mr. Martin and the Liberals it's evolved from being a relatively benign issue to one that could be genuinely troubling. Not only are the numbers not lining up very well within his available constituency, the trajectory is in the wrong direction," said Frank Graves, president of EKOS.

"Moreover, people tell us that unlike other issues like same-sex (marriage) or ethics, this is an issue which may well be worth fighting an election over," he said.

In a nationwide poll last week, 54 per cent of those surveyed said they oppose Canada's participation in U.S. plans to build a system of interceptors to shoot down missiles in case of attack. That's up 1 percentage point from last October.

Over the same time, public backing for the program has softened, with 34 per cent of Canadians saying they either support or strongly support the program, down from 37 per cent.

Twelve per cent said they didn't know or didn't respond.

The poll of 1,046 Canadians aged 18 and over was conducted from Feb. 7 to 9. The results are considered accurate within 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Graves says the door hasn't closed completely on the possibility that Canada will join, especially since other polling shows that Canadians favour a continental defence strategy as "inevitable and sensible."