The Toronto Star's Chantal Hebert does a good job of explaining Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's obstacles to achieving a breakthrough in Quebec.
Some excerpts:
The first is one Harper, as an Albertan, can do nothing about. In 1984 and 1988, Mulroney was the only leader from Quebec on the ballot.
Quebec voters have often put at least as high a premium on federal leadership with roots in the province as on party policy and that makes securing the other ingredient even more crucial to Harper's chances of finding a toehold in the province.
In 1984, Mulroney enjoyed the active support of the Parti Québécois government of the day. By 1988, his free trade plan had the official backing of Liberal premier Robert Bourassa, who had returned to power in the interval.
Two decades later, the PQ is no longer on the market for a federalist party to support at the national level. It has found a federal Siamese twin in the Bloc Québécois.
As for Premier Jean Charest, he is in no position to give his blessing to the federal party he once led, not with the bulk of Paul Martin's Quebec ministers hailing from the ranks of his provincial Liberals. ...
She thinks the Action Democratique du Quebec -- which has the support of one Quebecer in five -- could be persuaded to support the Conservatives under the right circumstances.
However, there's three big hurdles
- Same-sex marriage: Harper's against it; Most Quebecers are okay with it)
- Missile Defence: Harper's kinda-sorta for it; Quebecers are dead-set against it
- Federal aid for Bombardier:
As things stand today, Dumont would have a lot more to lose than to gain by commending the federal Conservatives to his supporters.
That is something Harper has been working hard to change over the past year.
His chances of becoming prime minister may well ride on his capacity to continue steering that course through the policy shoals of the next year.