A September "peace deal" in North Waziristan has done nothing to stem the flow of fighters into Afghanistan from Pakistan, and has led to the establishment of a virtual Taliban mini-state, the NYT reports.
The militants, the officials say, are openly flouting the terms of the September accord in North Waziristan, under which they agreed to end cross-border help for the Taliban insurgency that revived in Afghanistan with new force this year.
The area is becoming a magnet for an influx of foreign fighters, who not only challenge government authority in the area, but are even wresting control from local tribes and spreading their influence to neighboring areas, according to several American and NATO officials and Pakistani and Afghan intelligence officials.
This year more than 100 local leaders, government sympathizers or accused “American spies” have been killed, several of them in beheadings, as the militants have used a reign of terror to impose what President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan calls a creeping “Talibanization.” Last year, at least 100 others were also killed.
While the tribes once offered refuge to the militants when they retreated to the area in 2002 after the American invasion of Afghanistan, that welcome is waning as the killings have generated new tensions and added to the region’s volatility.
“They are taking territory,” said one Western ambassador in Pakistan. “They are becoming much more aggressive in Pakistan.”
“It is the lesson from Afghanistan in the ’90s,” he added. “Ungoverned spaces are a problem. The whole tribal area is a problem.” ...
(Here's the NYT map showing North and South Waziristan)
Since retreating from Afghanistan in 2002 under American military attacks, the Taliban and foreign fighters have again been using the tribal areas to organize themselves — now training their sights on the 40,000 American and NATO troops in Afghanistan.
After failing to gain control of the areas in military campaigns, the government cut peace deals in South Waziristan in 2004 and 2005, and then in North Waziristan on Sept. 5. Since the September accord, NATO officials say cross-border attacks by Pakistani and Afghan Taliban and their foreign allies have increased.
In recent weeks, Pakistani intelligence officials said the number of foreign fighters in the tribal areas was far higher than the official estimate of 500, perhaps as high as 2,000 today.
These fighters include Afghans and seasoned Taliban leaders, Uzbek and other Central Asian militants, and what intelligence officials estimate to be 80 to 90 Arab terrorist operatives and fugitives, possibly including the Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden and his second in command, Ayman al-Zawahri.
The tightening web of alliances among these groups in a remote, mountainous area increasingly beyond state authority is potentially disastrous for efforts to combat terrorism as far away as Europe and the United States, intelligence officials warn.
Here's a related Dec. 8 BBC story: No deal on Afghan border security
Update
The BBC had a similar story on Monday morning to the one above. It cites an International Crisis Group report as saying Pakistani peace efforts in the tribal areas had bolstered the Taliban.
According to the International Crisis Group report, "a virtual mini Taleban-style state" had been allowed to flourish.
"Over the past five years, the Musharraf government has tried first brute force, then appeasement. Both have failed," said Samina Ahmed, the group's South Asia project director.
"Islamabad's tactics have only emboldened the pro-Taleban militants."
The report said Pakistan's policy of releasing militants, returning their weapons and allowing "foreign terrorists stay on a promise to give up violence" had stoked instability on both sides of the border.
"This has given pro-Taleban elements license to recruit and arm, resulting in a serious increase in cross-border attacks against US, Nato and Afghan forces."
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam would not comment on the report, saying she had not finished reading it. But she told journalists in Islamabad that a recent UN report had more credibility.
That report said Afghanistan's booming drug trade and widespread corruption was fuelling the insurgency and threatening efforts to rebuild the country.